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A Theory of International Official Lending / Qing Liu, Zanhui Liu, Vivian Zhanwei Yue.

NBER Working papers Available online

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Format:
Book
Author/Creator:
Liu, Qing.
Contributor:
Liu, Zanhui.
Yue, Vivian Zhanwei.
National Bureau of Economic Research.
Series:
Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w35667.
NBER working paper series no. w35667
Language:
English
Physical Description:
1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
Place of Publication:
Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2026.
Summary:
Official lending is large, senior, and countercyclical, continuing after sovereigns fall into arrears on private debt. We ask why sovereign finance exhibits this division of labor across creditors. In a production economy where a risk-averse sovereign privately allocates imported inputs, commitment is limited on both sides, and monitoring generates a noisy signal, the constrained-optimal allocation is decentralized by defaultable private debt, senior non-defaultable multilateral debt, and concessional bilateral debt whose relief is tied to the signal. Production remains distorted, but the sovereign is never excluded: official lending is monitored liquidity provision. A calibration reproduces procyclical private and countercyclical official debt.
Notes:
August 2026.
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