The Labor Market Impacts of GLP-1s / N. Meltem Daysal, Camille JH. Fredrickson, Ida L. Kristiansen, Mircea Trandafir, Jonathan Zhang.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Daysal, N. Meltem.

Contributor:

Fredrickson, Camille JH.

Kristiansen, Ida L.

Trandafir, Mircea.

Zhang, Jonathan.

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w35475.

NBER working paper series no. w35475

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2026.

Summary:

We estimate the causal impacts of GLP-1 treatment on labor market outcomes using linked Danish administrative data and a matched stacked difference-in-differences design. We compare patients who initiate GLP-1 treatment during the first two years of Semaglutide availability to observably similar patients who initiate four years later. We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%. We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3-1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual. We do not detect statistically significant or economically meaningful impacts on income, labor force participation, or employment over four years.

Notes:

July 2026.

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