Dynamic Individuals, Static Neighborhoods: Migration and Earnings Changes in Poor Neighborhoods / Andrew Garin, Ethan Jenkins, Evan E. Mast, Bryan A. Stuart.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Garin, Andrew.

Contributor:

Jenkins, Ethan.

Mast, Evan E.

Stuart, Bryan A.

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w35381.

NBER working paper series no. w35381

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2026.

Summary:

This paper studies migration and earnings dynamics in poor neighborhoods using new administrative data linking residential location and earnings. Out-migration rates are higher in poor neighborhoods than elsewhere, and the majority of people who leave a poor neighborhood move to a richer one. Residents of poor neighborhoods also see significant earnings mobility, with average growth rates similar to richer areas. Estimates based on idiosyncratic, firm-specific pay changes show that increases in earnings are linked to migration to better neighborhoods. This results in the earnings of the cohort who lived in a poor neighborhood at baseline growing more than twice as fast as the earnings of these neighborhoods' contemporaneous residents. Overall, our results highlight an underappreciated reason why poor neighborhoods stay poor: initial residents whose earnings grow tend to move away.

Notes:

June 2026.

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