Life After Growth : How the global economy really works - and why 200 years of growth are over / Tim Morgan.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Morgan, Tim, author.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic forecasting.

Economic history.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (157 pages)

Edition:

First edition.

Place of Publication:

Petersfield, England : Harriman House Ltd, 2016.

Summary:

NEW PAPERBACK EDITION WITH ADDITIONAL INTRODUCTION AND END NOTE FROM THE AUTHORWhy, years after the banking crisis, is the global economy still mired in recession and burdened by enormous debts? Why have the tried-and-tested economic policies of the past failed us this time?In Life After Growth, leading City analyst Tim Morgan sets out a ground-breaking analysis of how the economy really works. Economists are mistaken, he argues, when they limit their interpretation of the economy to matters of money. Ultimately, the economy is an energy system, not a monetary one.From this, it follows that we need to think in terms of two economies, not one - a 'real' economy of work, energy, resources, goods and services, and a parallel, 'financial' economy of money and debt. These two economies have parted company, allowing the financial economy to pile up promises that the real economy cannot meet.Starting with the discovery of agriculture, Tim Morgan traces the rise of the economy in terms of work, energy and resources. The driving factor, he explains, has been cheap and abundant energy. As energy has become increasingly costly to obtain, the potential for prosperity has diminished, to the point where growth in the real economy has ceased.An immediate problem is that our commitments - including debt, investments and welfare promises - cannot be honoured, which means that we can expect the financial system to be wracked by value destruction. At the same time, we need to adapt to a future in which prosperity can no longer be taken for granted.

Contents:

Intro

Publishing details

Introduction to the Paperback Edition

MORBID CURIOSITY

CRISIS? WHAT CRISIS?

CRASH-AND-CARRY

THROUGH THE LOOKING-GLASS

Foreword by Terry Smith

PART I: THE END OF AN ERA

Chapter 1: An Economy That Has Run Out of Road

The corner that is never turned

In search of the real economy

The end of cheap energy and the death of wealth

Endnotes

Chapter 2: How the Economy Really Works

Two economies, not one

The real economy - an energy system

Fig. 1: Energy return ratios are non-linear

Fig. 2: Energy returns are nearing the cliff edge

The subservience of money

Recklessness - the creation of excess monetary claims

Fig. 3: The debt-GDP ratio in the United States since 1945

Fig. 4: American real GDP and debt since 1945

The madness of crowds

Fig. 5: Changes in British real debt and GDP

Fig. 6: British real debt and GDP

The globalisation disaster

Dodgy data - an exercise in self-delusion

Where do we go from here?

Endnote

PART II. THE REAL ECONOMY

Chapter 3: The Energy Economy

What is the real economy?

The commonality of energy

Chapter 4: The Great Breakthroughs

The first great breakthrough - agriculture

The second great breakthrough - the heat-engine

Chapter 5: Growth and Risk

Energy, population and exponential risk

Fig. 7: Fossil fuel consumption since 1750

Fig. 8: American real GDP since 1750

Fig. 9: An exponential progression - compound interest

Fig. 10: A real-world exponential - the global population

Fig. 11: Energy consumption and the global population

Fig. 12: Exponential risk

Towards peak oil?

Fig. 13: An illustrative peak oil supply pattern

Fig. 14: Oil - feature …

Fig. 15: … or blip?

Right answer - wrong question

Chapter 6: The Real Threat.

Energy returns - the killer equation

Table 1: EROEIs in energy units and percentages

Fig. 16: The energy returns 'cliff'

Fig. 17: The energy cost of energy

Fig. 18: Trends in energy returns by fuel source

Where are we now?

Fig. 19: The underlying cost of energy since 1965

Fig. 20: Time development along the EROEI curve

The road from wealth to poverty

Fig. 21: A high EROEI economy

Fig. 22: A low EROEI economy

Removing the foundations?

Fig. 23: Energy and commodity prices, 2012 vs 2000

Knowing the score

PART III. THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY

Chapter 7: The Servant, Not the Master

The subservient role of money

The creation of money

Chapter 8: The Madness of Crowds

When it didn't pay to go Dutch

"An undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is"

An eastern bubble

Fig. 24: Japanese economic performance since 1960

The biggest bust

Figs. 25 and 26: Borrowing and growth in the United States

Something old, something new

Chapter 9: The madness of globalisation

Dangerously simple, simply dangerous

Credit market distortion

'Taking in each others' washing'

Fig. 27: The composition of American GDP since 1980, inflation-adjusted

Fig. 28: Consumption and production in America since 1980, inflation-adjusted

Fig. 29: The American trade balance in goods since 1963, inflation-adjusted

Deep in the hole

Fig. 30: American debt since 1980, inflation-adjusted

Table 2: Changes in American debt and GDP, inflation-adjusted

Gravity reasserts itself - the debt crash

Fig. 31: The expansion of the Federal Reserve balance sheet since 2007

Compounding errors

Energy takes away the punch bowl

Fig. 32: American oil and import costs

Fig. 33: OECD oil and import costs

Chapter 10: The Madness of Statistics.

The high price of understated inflation

Fig. 34: British inflation in detail, 2002-12

Fig. 35: Annual changes in British wages and inflation, 2002-12

Fig. 36: British wages adjusted for inflation, 2002-12

Fig. 37: Trends in American government bond yields since 1981

Grossly Distorted Prosperity

Table 3: American GDP - the impact of imputations

What growth, what jobs?

Fig. 38: American GDP growth

Fig. 39: American unemployment

Government finances - smoke and mirrors

Table 4: Liabilities in 2010, selected governments

The understatement of government commitments

Fig. 40: American government debt, quasi-debt and GDP, 2011

PART IV. LIFE AFTER GROWTH

Chapter 11: Welcome to Life After Growth

The end of an era

Chapter 12: Value Reduction - the Real Economy

Energy - from abundance to scarcity

Options for the future

Costs - the energy sprawl phenomenon

Fig. 41: An illustration of future energy price trends

Real incomes under pressure

Business - the model nears obsolescence

Chapter 13: Value Destruction - the Financial Economy

Unfit for purpose

Fig. 42: An illustration of the 'claims gap' and value destruction

Thinking the unconventional

Are we printing inflation?

When inflation is not enough

Chapter 14: An End or a Beginning?

How do we think?

Action this day?

The dangers of stasis

Afterword: "What Does This Mean to Me?"

End Note to the Paperback Edition.

Notes:

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

0-85719-556-5