Small probabilities and high stakes / Christian Tarsney

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Tarsney, Christian, author.

Series:

Cambridge elements. Elements in decision theory and philosophy

Cambridge elements. Elements in decision theory and philosophy, 2517-4827

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Decision making--Moral and ethical aspects.

Decision making.

Decision making--Data processing.

Practical reason.

Probabilities.

probability.

Physical Description:

1 online resource

Place of Publication:

Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2026

Summary:

"What price should you be willing to pay for a tiny probability of an astronomically large gain, or to avoid a tiny probability of an astronomically large loss? Should you be willing to pay any finite price, if the potential gains or losses are large enough? Fanaticism says you should, while anti-fanaticism says you should not. Focusing on morally motivated decision-making, this Element explores arguments for and against both positions, ultimately defending the intermediate view that rationality permits a range of dispositions toward extreme risks, while ruling out the most comprehensive forms of both fanaticism and anti-fanaticism. The final section considers practical implications, arguing that under real-world circumstances any view satisfying a minimal principle of rationality must very often rank options by expected value, and thus sometimes give great weight to intuitively small probabilities, but that we nonetheless retain rational flexibility in sufficiently extreme cases"-- Cambridge Core

Contents:

Fanaticism and anti-fanaticism

The case for fanaticism

The case against fanaticism

The case for anti-fanaticism

The case against anti-fanaticism

The permissivist synthesis

Fanaticism, anti-fanaticism, and permissivism in practice

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references

Online resource; title from PDF title page (Cambridge Core, viewed May 18, 2026)

Other Format:

Print version: Tarsney, Christian Small probabilities and high stakes

ISBN:

9781009333047

1009333046

OCLC:

1564133438

Publisher Number:

CIPO000317195

Access Restriction:

Restricted for use by site license