Nonlinear Policy Rules and the Identification and Estimation of Causal Effects in a Generalized Regression Kink Design / David Card, David Lee, Zhuan Pei, Andrea Weber.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Card, David.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Lee, David.

Pei, Zhuan.

Weber, Andrea.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w18564.

NBER working paper series no. w18564

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2012.

Summary:

We consider nonparametric identification and estimation in a nonseparable model where a continuous regressor of interest is a known, deterministic, but kinked function of an observed assignment variable. This design arises in many institutional settings where a policy variable (such as weekly unemployment benefits) is determined by an observed but potentially endogenous assignment variable (like previous earnings). We provide new results on identification and estimation for these settings, and apply our results to obtain estimates of the elasticity of joblessness with respect to UI benefit rates. We characterize a broad class of models in which a "Regression Kink Design" (RKD, or RK Design) provides valid inferences for the treatment-on-the-treated parameter (Florens et al. (2008)) that would be identified in an ideal randomized experiment. We show that the smooth density condition that is sufficient for identification rules out extreme sorting around the kink, but is compatible with less severe forms of endogeneity. It also places testable restrictions on the distribution of predetermined covariates around the kink point. We introduce a generalization of the RKD - the "fuzzy regression kink design" - that allows for omitted variables in the assignment rule, as well as certain types of measurement errors in the observed values of the assignment variable and the policy variable. We also show how standard local polynomial regression techniques can be adapted to obtain nonparametric estimates for the sharp and fuzzy RKD. We then use a fuzzy RKD approach to study the effect of unemployment insurance benefits on the duration of joblessness in Austria, where the benefit schedule has kinks at the minimum and maximum benefit level. Our estimates suggest that the elasticity of joblessness with respect to the benefit rate is on the order of 1.5.

Notes:

Print version record

November 2012.