Adjustment to Expected and Unexpected Oil Price Changes / Nancy Peregrim Marion, Lars E.O. Svensson.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Marion, Nancy Peregrim.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Svensson, Lars E.O.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w0997.

NBER working paper series no. w0997

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Petroleum reserves.

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1982.

Cambridge, Mass : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1982.

Summary:

For oil importers, differences in economic performance after the 1973-74 oil price increase and after the 1979-80 increase can be attributed to a number of factors, including the fact that the 1973-74 oil price increase was unexpected whereas the 1979-80 increase was largely expected. In this paper, we analyze how an economy's adjustment to expected oil price increases might differ from its adjustment to unexpected increases. By expected oil price increases, we shall mean ones that were anticipated in the past, and by unexpected oil price increases, we shall mean those that were not anticipated in the past but occur unexpectedly in the present. We model this distinction using a three- period model, where the periods are called the past, present and future.

Notes:

Print version record

October 1982.