Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different? / Kathryn M.E. Dominguez, Matthew D. Shapiro.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Dominguez, Kathryn M.E.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Shapiro, Matthew D.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w18751.

NBER working paper series no. w18751

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2013.

Summary:

This paper asks whether the slow recovery of the US economy from the trough of the Great Recession was anticipated, and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery. It constructs a narrative using news reports and government announcements to identify policy and financial shocks. It then compares forecasts and forecast revisions of GDP to the narrative. Successive financial and fiscal shocks emanating from Europe, together with self-inflicted wounds from the political stalemate over the US fiscal situation, help explain the slowing of the pace of an already slow recovery.

Notes:

Print version record

February 2013.