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Sticking with What (Barely) Worked / Lars Lefgren, Brennan Platt, Joseph Price.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Lefgren, Lars.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w17477.
- NBER working paper series no. w17477
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Other Title:
- Sticking with What
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2011.
- Summary:
- Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex-post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct, ex-ante. We formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by professional football coaches. We find they are more likely to revise their strategy after a loss than a win -- even for narrow losses, which are uninformative about future success. This increased revision following a loss occurs even when a loss was expected, and the offensive strategy is revised even when failure is attributable to the defense. These results are consistent with our model's predictions.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- October 2011.
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