Debt Overhangs: Past and Present / Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent R. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Reinhart, Carmen M.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Reinhart, Vincent R.

Rogoff, Kenneth S.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w18015.

NBER working paper series no. w18015

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2012.

Summary:

We identify the major public debt overhang episodes in the advanced economies since the early 1800s, characterized by public debt to GDP levels exceeding 90% for at least five years. Consistent with Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and other more recent research, we find that public debt overhang episodes are associated with growth over one percent lower than during other periods. Perhaps the most striking new finding here is the duration of the average debt overhang episode. Among the 26 episodes we identify, 20 lasted more than a decade. Five of the six shorter episodes were immediately after World Wars I and II. Across all 26 cases, the average duration in years is about 23 years. The long duration belies the view that the correlation is caused mainly by debt buildups during business cycle recessions. The long duration also implies that cumulative shortfall in output from debt overhang is potentially massive. We find that growth effects are significant even in the many episodes where debtor countries were able to secure continual access to capital markets at relatively low real interest rates. That is, growth-reducing effects of high public debt are apparently not transmitted exclusively through high real interest rates.

Notes:

Print version record

April 2012.