Selecting the Best? Spillover and Shadows in Elimination Tournaments / Jennifer Brown, Dylan B. Minor.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Brown, Jennifer.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Minor, Dylan B.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w17639.

NBER working paper series no. w17639

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2011.

Summary:

We consider how past, current, and future competition within an elimination tournament affect the probability that the stronger player wins. We present a two-stage model that yields the following main results: (1) a shadow effect--the stronger the expected future competitor, the lower the probability that the stronger player wins in the current stage and (2) an effort spillover effect--previous effort reduces the probability that the stronger player wins in the current stage. We test our theory predictions using data from high-stakes tournaments. Empirical results suggest that shadow and spillover effects influence match outcomes and have been already been priced into betting markets.

Notes:

Print version record

December 2011.