The Ins and Outs of Unemployment: The Ins Win / Michael R. Darby, John C. Haltiwanger, Mark W. Plant.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Darby, Michael R.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Haltiwanger, John C.

Plant, Mark W.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w1997.

NBER working paper series no. w1997

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Other Title:

The Ins and Outs of Unemployment

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1986.

Summary:

This paper develops a framework for analyzing unemployment in terms of variations in the nt.imber and distribution of people becoming unemployed and in

individual probabilities of leaving unemployment. Contrary to the emphasis on exit probabilities in the recent macroeconomics literature, we present empirical evidence in support of the proposition that changes in the size and distribution of the inflow Into unemployment are the primary determinant of the unemployment rate. Instead of falling at the beginning of a recession, the outflow rate rises (with a lag) in response to the increased inflows which drive the recession. In contrast to normal unemployment, cyclical unemployment is concentrated in groups with low normal exit probabilities; so the observed procyclical variation in the average exit probability may largely he explained by predictable distributional effects.

Notes:

Print version record

August 1986.