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Cattle Cycles / Sherwin Rosen, Kevin M. Murphy, Jose A. Scheinkman.

NBER Working papers Available online

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Format:
Book
Author/Creator:
Rosen, Sherwin.
Contributor:
National Bureau of Economic Research.
Murphy, Kevin M.
Scheinkman, Jose A.
Series:
Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w4403.
NBER working paper series no. w4403
Language:
English
Subjects (All):
Cattle--Breeding--Economic aspects.
Cattle.
Beef industry--United States.
Beef industry.
Physical Description:
1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
Place of Publication:
Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1993.
Cambridge, Massachusetts : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1993.
Summary:
U.S. beef cattle stocks are among the most periodic time-series in economics. A theory of cattle cycles is constructed, based upon rational breeding stock inventory decisions in the presence of gestation and maturation delays between production and consumption. The low fertility rates of cows and substantial lags between fertility and consumption decisions cause the demographic structure of the herd to respond cyclically to exogenous shocks in demand for beef and in production costs. Known biotechnology of cattle demographics imply sharp numerical benchmarks for the dynamic system that describes the evolution of cattle stock and beef consumption. These compare very closely to structural econometric time-series estimates over the 1875-1990 period and prove that systematic cattle cycles have a wholly rational explanation.
Notes:
Print version record
July 1993.

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