News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions / N. Gregory Mankiw, Matthew D. Shapiro.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Mankiw, N. Gregory.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Shapiro, Matthew D.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w1939.

NBER working paper series no. w1939

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1986.

Summary:

This paper studies the nature of the errors in preliminary GNP data,

It first documents that these errors are large. For example, suppose the

prelimimary estimate indicates that real GNP did not change over the

recent quarter; then one can be only 80 percent confident that the final

estimate (annual rate) will be in the range from -2.8 percent to +2.8

percent. The paper also documents that the revisions in GNP data are not

forecastable, This finding implies that the preliminary estimates are the

efficient given available information. Hence, the Bureau of Economic

Analysis appears to follow efficient statistical procedures, in making its

preliminary estimates.

Notes:

Print version record

June 1986.