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Corn Production Shocks in 2012 and Beyond: Implications for Food Price Volatility / Steven T. Berry, Michael J. Roberts, Wolfram Schlenker.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Berry, Steven (Steven T.)
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w18659.
- NBER working paper series no. w18659
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2012.
- Summary:
- Corn prices increased sharply in the summer of 2012 due to expected production shortfalls in the United States, which produces roughly 40% of the world's corn. A heat wave in July adversely affected corn production. We extend earlier statistical models of county-level corn yields in the Eastern United States by allowing the effect of various weather measures to vary in a flexible manner over the growing season: Extreme heat is especially harmful around a third into the growing season. This is the time when the 2012 heat wave hit the Corn Belt. Our model predicts 2012 corn yields will be 23% below trend. While extreme heat was significantly above normal, climate change scenarios suggest that the 2012 outcomes will soon be the new normal.
- Notes:
- December 2012.
- Print version record
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