The Role of Expectations in the Choice of Monetary Policy / John B. Taylor.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Taylor, John B.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w1044.

NBER working paper series no. w1044

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1982.

Summary:

This paper reviews and contrasts different views about the role of expectations in policy research and practice. Recently, two widely different views seem to have dominated the analysis of policy questions.One view, which is referred to as the "new classical macroeconomic"view, is that expectations overwhelm the influence of monetary policy.The other view, which is referred to as the "Keynesian" macroeconomic view, is that expectations are unimportant because people do not adjust to expectations of policy change. The paper argues that both these views are misleading. It advances a new view of the role of expectations that is still emerging from current macroeconomic reearch. The new view recognizes the importance of contractual arrangements which prevent a modern economy from adjusting instantaneously to policy changes, even if they are expected. But it also emphasizes that forward-looking expectations influence how these arrangements are set up and how they evolve over time. Recent criticisms of this new view are reviewed, and examples are given to illustrate how quantitative methods that incorporate this view can be used in practice.

Notes:

Print version record

December 1982.