The Information in the Term Structure: Some Further Results / Frederic S. Mishkin.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Mishkin, Frederic S.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w2575.

NBER working paper series no. w2575

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Other Title:

The Information in the Term Structure

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1988.

Summary:

This paper provides some refinements and updating of Fama's (1984) evidence on the information in the term structure about future spot interest rate movements. First, it uses econometric techniques that properly correct standard errors for overlapping data and for conditional heteroscedasticity. Second. it makes use of a new data set that has some potential advantages over Fama's and which has more recent data. Overall, the results are in broad agreement with those of Fama. The term structure does help predict spot interest rate movements several months into the future. Indeed. updating Fama's results indicates that the forecast power of forward rates is generally higher during the October 1982 to June 1986 period than it was during the sample periods Fama examined.

Notes:

Print version record

May 1988.