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Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag? / Rainer Kotschy, David E. Bloom.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Kotschy, Rainer.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w31585.
- NBER working paper series no. w31585
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2023.
- Summary:
- This paper examines the extent to which changes in working-age shares associated with population aging might slow economic growth in upcoming years. We first analyze the economic effects of changing working-age shares in a standard empirical growth model using country panel data from 1950-2015. We then juxtapose the estimates with predicted shifts in population age structure to project economic growth in 2020-2050. Our results indicate that population aging will slow economic growth throughout much of the world. Expansions of labor supply due to improvements in functional capacity among older people can cushion much of this demographic drag.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- August 2023.
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