Mistrust, Misperception, and Misunderstanding: Imperfect Information and Conflict Dynamics / Daron Acemoglu, Alexander Wolitzky.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Acemoglu, Daron.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Wolitzky, Alexander.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w31681.

NBER working paper series no. w31681

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2023.

Summary:

Building on theories of international relations, we analyze how mistrust (uncertainty about an adversary's preferences or capabilities), misperception (imperfect observation of an adversary's actions), and misunderstanding (non-degenerate higher-order beliefs) can lead to conflict and drive its dynamics. We develop our analysis in the context of three classic models: a one-shot security dilemma or spiral model; a repeated version of the security dilemma that allows for gradual learning about the opponent's type, as well as the possibility of conflict spirals, traps, and cycles; and a deterrence model. We relate these models to the empirical literature and to current and historical episodes of conflict.

Notes:

Print version record

September 2023.