U.S. Demographics and Saving: Predictions of Three Saving Models / Alan J. Auerbach, Jinyong Cai, Laurence J. Kotlikoff.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Auerbach, Alan J.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Cai, Jinyong.

Kotlikoff, Laurence J.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w3404.

NBER working paper series no. w3404

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Other Title:

U.S. Demographics and Saving

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1990.

Summary:

This paper compares the predictions of three different saving models with respect to the impact of projected U.S. demographic change on future U.S. saving rates. The three models are the life cycle model, the infinite horizon altruism model, and a reduced form econometric model. The findings for the different models indicate a great range of possible paths of future U.S. saving. However, the three models concur in predicting a peak in the U.S. national saving rate in the near future (within 15 years), followed by a significant decline in the saving rate thereafter. In fact, the findings suggest the strong possibility of negative U.S. saving rates beginning after 2030.

Notes:

Print version record

July 1990.