The Sensitivity of Experimental Impact Estimates: Evidence from the National JTPA Study / James J. Heckman, Jeffrey A. Smith.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Heckman, James J.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Smith, Jeffrey A.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w6105.

NBER working paper series no. w6105

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Other Title:

The Sensitivity of Experimental Impact Estimates

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1997.

Summary:

The recent experimental evaluation of the U.S. Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) program found negative effects of training on the earnings of disadvantaged male youth and no effect on the earnings of disadvantaged female youth. These findings provided justification for Congress to cut the budget of JTPA's youth component by over 80 percent. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity of the experimental impact estimates along several dimensions of construction and interpretation. We find that the statistical significance of the male youth estimates is extremely fragile and that the magnitudes of the estimates for both youth groups are sensitive to nearly all the factors we consider. In particular, accounting for experimental control group members who substitute training from other providers leads to a much more positive picture regarding the effectiveness of JTPA classroom training. Our study indicates the value of sensitivity analyses in experimental evaluations and illustrates that experimental impact estimates, like those from nonexperimental analyses, require careful interpretation if they are to provide a reliable guide to policymakers.

Notes:

Print version record

July 1997.