1 option
The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility / Kenneth D. West, Dongchul Cho.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- West, Kenneth D.
- Series:
- Technical Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. t0152.
- NBER technical working paper series no. t0152
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1994.
- Summary:
- We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more accurate forecasts. For longer horizons, it is difficult to find grounds for choosing between the various models. None of the models perform well in a conventional test of forecast efficiency.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- January 1994.
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