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Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts / Daniel R. Feenberg, William Gentry, David Gilroy, Harvey S. Rosen.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Feenberg, Daniel R.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w2628.
- NBER working paper series no. w2628
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1988.
- Summary:
- In recent months, the governors of several states have suffered major political embarrassments because actual revenues fell, substantially short of the predictions in their respective budgets. Such episodes focus attention on the question of whether states do a "good" job of forecasting revenues. In modern economics, forecasts are evaluated on the basis of whether or not they are "rational" -- do the forecasts optimally incorporate all information that is available at the tune they are made? This paper develops a method for testing the rationality of state revenue forecasts, and applies it to the analysis of data from New Jersey, Massachusetts, arid Maryland. One of our main findings is that in all three states, the forecasts of own revenues are systematically biased downward.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- June 1988.
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