COVID-19 and SMEs: A 2021 "Time Bomb"? / Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, Nick Sander.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Kalemli-Özcan, Ṣebnem.

Penciakova, Veronika.

Sander, Nick.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w28418.

NBER working paper series no. w28418

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2021.

Summary:

This paper assesses the prospects of a 2021 time bomb in SME failures triggered by the generous support policies enacted during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. Policies implemented in 2020, on their own, do not create a 2021 "time-bomb" for SMEs. Rather, business failures and policy costs remain modest. By contrast, credit contraction poses significant risk. Such a contraction would disproportionately impact firms that could survive COVID-19 in 2020 without any fiscal support. Even in that scenario, most business failures would not arise from excessively generous 2020 policies, but rather from the contraction of credit to the corporate sector.

Notes:

Print version record

January 2021.