A Theory of Voluntary Testing and Self-isolation in an Ongoing Pandemic / Thomas F. Hellmann, Veikko Thiele.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Hellmann, Thomas F.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Thiele, Veikko.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w27941.

NBER working paper series no. w27941

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020.

Summary:

Thinking beyond Covid-19, there is a growing interest in what economic structures will be needed to face ongoing pandemics. In this paper we focus on the diagnostic problem and examine a new paradigm of voluntary self-testing by private individuals. People without symptoms face daily choices of either taking the risk of going out (to work and socialize), versus staying at home in self-isolation. Our theory shows that two types of people voluntary test themselves: those who otherwise would have self-isolated, and those who would have gone out indiscriminately. Our central insight is that the equilibrium infection risk falls when home-based testing becomes cheaper and easier to use, even if tests are not always accurate. Our results challenge the clinical mainstream view that diagnostic testing is a prerogative of the medical profession, and supports the notion that frequent self-testing is vital for an economy facing an ongoing pandemic.

Notes:

Print version record

October 2020.