The Inexorable Recoveries of Unemployment / Robert E. Hall, Marianna Kudlyak.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Hall, Robert E.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Kudlyak, Marianna.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w28111.

NBER working paper series no. w28111

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020.

Summary:

Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. Between 1948 and 2019, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate during cyclical recoveries was fairly tightly distributed around 0.1 log points per year. The economy seems to have an irresistible force toward restoring full employment. In the aftermath of a recession, unless another crisis intervenes, unemployment continues to glide down. Occasionally, unemployment rises rapidly during an economic crisis, while most of the time, unemployment declines slowly and smoothly at a near-constant proportional rate. We show that similar properties hold for other measures of the US unemployment rate and for the unemployment rates of many other emerging and advanced countries.

Notes:

Print version record

November 2020.