Expectations, reference points, and compliance with COVID-19 social distancing measures / Guglielmo Briscese, Nicola Lacetera, Mario Macis, Mirco Tonin.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Briscese, Guglielmo.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Lacetera, Nicola.

Macis, Mario.

Tonin, Mirco.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w26916.

NBER working paper series no. w26916

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020.

Summary:

We surveyed representative samples of Italian residents at three critical points in the COVID-19 pandemic, to test whether and how intentions to comply with social-isolation restrictions respond to the duration of their possible extension. Individuals reported being more likely to reduce, and less likely to increase, their self-isolation effort if negatively surprised by a given hypothetical extension (i.e., if the extension is longer than what they expected), whereas positive surprises had no impact. These results are consistent with reference-dependent preferences, with individual expectations serving as a reference point, and loss aversion. Our findings indicate that public authorities should carefully manage expectations about policy measures and account for behavioral reactions to deviations from previous announcements.

Notes:

Print version record

March 2020.