Did California's Shelter-in-Place Order Work? Early Coronavirus-Related Public Health Effects / Andrew I. Friedson, Drew McNichols, Joseph J. Sabia, Dhaval Dave.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Friedson, Andrew I.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

McNichols, Drew.

Sabia, Joseph J.

Dave, Dhaval.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w26992.

NBER working paper series no. w26992

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020.

Summary:

On March 19, 2020, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued Executive Order N-33-20 2020, which required all residents of the state of California to shelter in place for all but essential activities such as grocery shopping, retrieving prescriptions from a pharmacy, or caring for relatives. This shelter-in-place order (SIPO), the first such statewide order issued in the United States, was designed to reduce COVID-19 cases and mortality. While the White House Task Force on the Coronavirus has credited the State of California for taking early action to prevent a statewide COVID-19 outbreak, no study has examined its impact. This study is the first to estimate the effect of SIPO adoption on health. Using daily state-level coronavirus data and a synthetic control research design, we find that California's statewide SIPO reduced COVID-19 cases by 125.5 to 219.7 per 100,000 population by April 20, one month following the order. We further find that California's SIPO led to as many as 1,661 fewer COVID-19 deaths during this period. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that there were about 400 job losses per life saved during this short-run post-treatment period.

Notes:

Print version record

April 2020.