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Predictable Price Pressure / Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Hartzmark, Samuel M.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w30688.
- NBER working paper series no. w30688
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2022.
- Summary:
- We demonstrate that predictable uninformed cash flows forecast market and individual stock returns. Buying pressure from dividend payments (announced weeks prior) predicts higher value-weighted market returns, with returns for the top quintile of payment days four times higher than the lowest. This holds internationally, and increases when reinvestment is high and market liquidity is low. High stock expense firms have lower returns from selling pressure after blackout periods, by 117 b.p. in four days. We estimate market-level price multipliers of 1.5 to 2.3. These results suggest price pressure is a widespread result of flows, not an anomaly.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- November 2022.
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