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Epidemic Responses Under Uncertainty / Michael Barnett, Greg Buchak, Constantine Yannelis.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Barnett, Michael.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w27289.
- NBER working paper series no. w27289
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020.
- Summary:
- We examine how policymakers react to a pandemic with uncertainty regarding key epidemiological parameters by embedding a macroeconomic SIR model in a robust control framework. We find that optimal policy under uncertainty generates optimal mitigation responses that are asymmetric with respect to the initial estimate of the pandemic's severity. When underestimating the severity, the robust control approach leads to a harsher quarantine, closer to the true optimal level, compared to a naive approach. When overestimating, the planner initially implements a policy similar to the true optimal policy but fails to relax it as the pandemic abates.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- May 2020.
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