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The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery / Michael A. Clemens, Ethan G. Lewis.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Clemens, Michael A.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w30589.
- NBER working paper series no. w30589
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2022.
- Summary:
- The U.S. limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously authorized to employ more immigrants significantly increase production (elasticity +0.16) with no decrease or an increase in U.S. employment (elasticity +0.10, statistically imprecise) across several pre-registered subsamples. The results imply very low substitutability of native for foreign labor in the policy-relevant occupations. Forensic analysis suggests similarly low substitutability of black-market labor.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- October 2022.
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