When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume / Francis X. Diebold, Glenn D. Rudebusch, Maximilian Göbel, Philippe Goulet Coulombe, Boyuan Zhang.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Diebold, Francis X.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Rudebusch, Glenn D.

Göbel, Maximilian.

Goulet Coulombe, Philippe.

Zhang, Boyuan.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w30732.

NBER working paper series no. w30732

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2022.

Summary:

Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained joint forecast procedure to models relating sea ice to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and models relating sea ice directly to time. The resulting "carbon-trend" and "time-trend" projections are mutually consistent and predict a nearly ice-free summer Arctic Ocean by the mid-2030s with an 80% probability. Moreover, the carbon-trend projections show that global adoption of a lower carbon path would likely delay the arrival of a seasonally ice-free Arctic by only a few years.

Notes:

Print version record

December 2022.