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Estimating Impact with Surveys versus Digital Traces: Evidence from Randomized Cash Transfers in Togo / Emily Aiken, Suzanne Bellue, Joshua Blumenstock, Dean Karlan, Christopher R. Udry.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Aiken, Emily.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w31751.
- NBER working paper series no. w31751
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2023.
- Summary:
- Do non-traditional digital trace data and traditional survey data yield similar estimates of the impact of a cash transfer program? In a randomized controlled trial of Togo's COVID-19 Novissi program, endline survey data indicate positive treatment effects on beneficiary food security, mental health, and self-perceived economic status. However, impact estimates based on mobile phone data - processed with machine learning to predict beneficiary welfare - do not yield similar results, even though related data and methods do accurately predict wealth and consumption in prior cross-sectional analysis in Togo. This limitation likely arises from the underlying difficulty of using mobile phone data to predict short-term changes in wellbeing within a rural population with fairly homogeneous baseline levels of poverty. We discuss the implications of these results for using new digital data sources in impact evaluation.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- October 2023.
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