The Neoclassical Growth of China / Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Lee E. Ohanian, Wen Yao.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Ohanian, Lee E.

Yao, Wen.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w31351.

NBER working paper series no. w31351

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2023.

Summary:

This paper studies China's four-fold increase in per capita GDP relative to the U.S. between 1995 and 2019. First, we argue that China's growth pattern is very similar to that of several other East Asia economies that initially grew very quickly. Second, we show that a minimalist Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model with a parsimonious TFP catch-up process can account for China's growth path and the growth paths of other East Asia economies at a similar stage of development. The growth paths of other East Asia economies and the model predictions suggest that China's growth will substantially slow, so much so that we find the U.S. growth rate will likely be higher than China's by 2043. We also find that China's income per capita will level off at roughly 44% of the U.S. level around 2100.

Notes:

Print version record

June 2023.