Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities / Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Charles I. Jones.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Jones, Charles I.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w27128.

NBER working paper series no. w27128

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020.

Summary:

We use data on deaths in New York City, Madrid, Stockholm, and other world cities as well as in various U.S. states and various countries and regions to estimate a standard epidemiological model of COVID-19. We allow for a time-varying contact rate in order to capture behavioral and policy-induced changes associated with social distancing. We simulate the model forward to consider possible futures for various countries, states, and cities, including the potential impact of herd immunity on re-opening. Our current baselinemortality rate (IFR) is assumed to be 1.0% but we recognize there is substantial uncertainty about this number. Our model fits the death data equally well with alternative mortality rates of 0.5% or 1.2%, so this parameter is unidentified in our data. However, its value matters enormously for the extent to which various places can relax social distancing without spurring a resurgence of deaths.

Notes:

Print version record

May 2020.