The Coming Rise in Residential Inflation / Marijn A. Bolhuis, Judd N. L. Cramer, Lawrence H. Summers.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Bolhuis, Marijn A.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Cramer, Judd N. L.

Summers, Lawrence H.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w29795.

NBER working paper series no. w29795

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2022.

Summary:

We study how the recent run-up in housing and rental prices affects the outlook for inflation in the United States. Housing held down overall inflation in 2021. Despite record growth in private market-based measures of home prices and rents, government measured residential services inflation was only four percent for the twelve months ending in January 2022. After explaining the mechanical cause for this divergence, we estimate that, if past relationships hold, the residential inflation components of the CPI and PCE are likely to move close to seven percent during 2022. These findings imply that housing will make a significant contribution to overall inflation in 2022, ranging from one percentage point for headline PCE to 2.6 percentage points for core CPI. We expect residential inflation to remain elevated in 2023.

Notes:

Print version record

February 2022.