Baby Busts and Baby Booms: The Fertility Response to Shocks in Dynastic Models / Larry E. Jones, Alice Schoonbroodt.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Jones, Larry E.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Schoonbroodt, Alice.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w16596.

NBER working paper series no. w16596

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Other Title:

Baby Busts and Baby Booms

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2010.

Summary:

Economic demographers have long analyzed fertility cycles. This paper builds a foundation for these cycles in a model of fertility choice with dynastic altruism and aggregate shocks. It is shown that under reasonable parameter values, fertility is pro-cyclical and that, following a shock, fertility continues to cycle endogenously as subsequent cohorts enter retirement. Quantitatively, in the model, the Great Depression generates a large baby bust -- between 38% and 63% of that seen in the U.S. in the 1930s -- which is subsequently followed by a baby boom -- between 53% and 92% of that seen in the U.S. in the 1950s.

Notes:

Print version record

December 2010.