The Lost Generation? Labor Market Outcomes for Post Great Recession Entrants / Jesse Rothstein.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Rothstein, Jesse.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w27516.

NBER working paper series no. w27516

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020.

Summary:

I study cohort patterns in the labor market outcomes of recent college graduates, examining changes surrounding the Great Recession. Recession entrants have lower wages and employment than those of earlier cohorts; more recent cohorts' employment is even lower, but the newest entrants' wages have risen. I relate these changes to "scarring" effects of initial conditions. I demonstrate that adverse early conditions permanently reduce new entrants' employment probabilities. I also replicate earlier results of medium-term scarring effects on wages that fade out by the early 30s. But scarring cannot account for the employment collapse for recent cohorts. There was a dramatic negative structural break in college graduates' employment rates, beginning around the 2005 entry cohort, that shows no sign of abating.

Notes:

Print version record

July 2020.