The Donut Effect of Covid-19 on Cities / Arjun Ramani, Nicholas Bloom.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Ramani, Arjun.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Bloom, Nicholas.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w28876.

NBER working paper series no. w28876

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2021.

Summary:

Using data from the US Postal Service and Zillow, we quantify the effect of Covid-19 on migration patterns and real estate markets in US cities. We find three key results. First, within large US metro areas, households, businesses and real estate demand shift from central business districts (CBDs) to lower density suburbs and exurbs. We label this the "Donut Effect", reflecting the hollowing out of city centers and growth of suburban outer rings. Second, we observe sizeable donuts in large cities, smaller donuts for mid-sized cities and essentially nothing for small cities, on average. Third, most households leaving city centers move to suburbs of the same city, some move to small metros and few move to rural areas. To rationalize these findings we note that post-pandemic working patterns will typically be hybrid, with workers commuting a few days a week. This is less than pre-pandemic, making longer commutes more common, but is frequent enough to keep most, though not all, workers near their place of work.

Notes:

Print version record

May 2021.