1 option
Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms' Subjective Beliefs / Ruediger Bachmann, Kai Carstensen, Stefan Lautenbacher, Martin Schneider.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Bachmann, Ruediger.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w29430.
- NBER working paper series no. w29430
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2021.
- Summary:
- This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new survey panel on German manufacturing firms, we show that uncertainty reflects change: Planning incorporates higher subjective uncertainty about future sales growth when the firm has just experienced unusual growth, and more so if the experience was negative. At the quarterly frequency, subjective uncertainty closely tracks conditional volatility of shocks: Both exhibit an asymmetric V-shaped relationship with past growth. In the cross section of firms, however, subjective uncertainty differs from conditional volatility: planning in successful firms--either large or fast-growing--reflects lower subjective uncertainty than in unsuccessful firms even when the size of the shocks is the same.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- October 2021.
The Penn Libraries is committed to describing library materials using current, accurate, and responsible language. If you discover outdated or inaccurate language, please fill out this feedback form to report it and suggest alternative language.