An Import(ant) Price of Brexit Uncertainty / Alejandro G. Graziano, Kyle Handley, Nuno Limão.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Graziano, Alejandro G.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Handley, Kyle.

Limão, Nuno.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w31600.

NBER working paper series no. w31600

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Other Title:

Import

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2023.

Summary:

We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our analysis reveals that an increase in the probability of Brexit increases U.K. import price indices by raising the prices of existing products and by reducing product variety from the E.U. We find evidence that the risk of higher import protection from the 2016 referendum increased current import price indices by more than 10%. This amounted to a 2 log point increase in manufactured goods prices and a 0.6 log point decrease in consumers' real income.

Notes:

Print version record

August 2023.