The Propagation of Regional Recessions / James D. Hamilton, Michael T. Owyang.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Hamilton, James D.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Owyang, Michael T.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w16657.

NBER working paper series no. w16657

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2011.

Summary:

This paper develops a framework for inferring common Markov-switching components in a panel data set with large cross-section and time-series dimensions. We apply the framework to studying similarities and differences across U.S. states in the timing of business cycles. We hypothesize that there exists a small number of cluster designations, with individual states in a given cluster sharing certain business cycle characteristics. We find that although oil-producing and agricultural states can sometimes experience a separate recession from the rest of the United States, for the most part, differences across states appear to be a matter of timing, with some states entering recession or recovering before others.

Notes:

Print version record

January 2011.