Natural Disasters and Elective Medical Services: How Big is the Bounce-Back? / Tatyana Deryugina, Jonathan Gruber, Adrienne Sabety.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Deryugina, Tatyana.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Gruber, Jonathan.

Sabety, Adrienne.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w27505.

NBER working paper series no. w27505

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020.

Summary:

COVID-19 has created a dual set of stresses on health care systems worldwide: a rise in expensive intensive care services and a dramatic decline in elective services. The U.S. government has responded with both grant and loan programs to help health care providers weather the storm. But the optimal size and nature of such programs are hard to evaluate without an understanding of the ability of providers to make up their lost elective service revenues over time. In this paper, we study the closest relevant parallel to the reduction in elective services seen under COVID-19: hurricanes. We match information on hurricanes to data on Medicare hospital elective visits and charges from 1997-2013, comparing counties impacted by hurricanes to nearby unaffected counties. We find that the average hurricane reduces elective services by about 7% in the month it makes landfall. For the most severe hurricanes, we estimate a reduction of more than 20%. Services return to baseline fairly rapidly, but for severe hurricanes it takes a year or more to make up lost revenues. Projections based on variation in hurricane severity suggest that it will take over 3 years for providers to make up the lost revenue from COVID-19.

Notes:

Print version record

July 2020.