Savings and the Terms of Trade Under Borrowing Constraints / Pierre-Richard Agenor, Joshua Aizenman.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Agenor, Pierre-Richard.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Aizenman, Joshua.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w7743.

NBER working paper series no. w7743

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2000.

Summary:

This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. The first part uses a simple three-period model to show that, if households expect to face binding borrowing constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade in contrast to what conventional consumption-smoothing models would predict. The second part tests for the existence of asymmetric effects of terms-of-trade disturbances using an econometric model that controls for various standard determinants of private savings. The results, based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980-96, indicate that increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade (measured using three alternative filtering techniques) tend indeed be associated with higher rates of private savings.

Notes:

Print version record

June 2000.