Preserving the Ocean Circulation: Implications for Climate Policy / Klaus Keller, Kelvin Tan, Francois M.M. Morel, David F. Bradford.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Keller, Klaus.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Tan, Kelvin.

Morel, Francois M.M.

Bradford, David F.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w7476.

NBER working paper series no. w7476

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2000.

Summary:

Climate modelers have recognized the possibility of abrupt climate changes caused by a reorganization of the North Atlantic's current pattern (technically known as a thermohaline circulation collapse). This circulation system now warms north-western Europe and transports carbon dioxide to the deep oceans. The posited collapse of this system could produce severe cooling in north-western Europe, even when general global warming is in progress. In this paper we use a simple integrated assessment model to investigate the optimal policy response to this risk. Adding the constraint of avoiding a thermohaline circulation collapse would significantly reduce the allowable greenhouse gas emissions in the long run along an optimal path. Our analysis implies that relatively small damages associated with a collapse (less than 1 % of gross world product) would justify a considerable reduction of future carbon dioxide emissions.

Notes:

Print version record

January 2000.