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Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation / Patrick Higgins, Tao Zha, Karen Zhong.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Higgins, Patrick.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w22402.
- NBER working paper series no. w22402
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2016.
- Summary:
- Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample model-based forecasts of China's real GDP growth and CPI inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and to be usable for policy analysis under different scenarios. It predicts that China's future GDP growth will be of L-shape rather than U-shape.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- July 2016.
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