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Forecasting the Results of Experiments: Piloting an Elicitation Strategy / Stefano DellaVigna, Nicholas Otis, Eva Vivalt.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- DellaVigna, Stefano.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w26716.
- NBER working paper series no. w26716
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Other Title:
- Forecasting the Results of Experiments
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020.
- Summary:
- Forecasts of experimental results can clarify the interpretation of research results, mitigate publication bias, and improve experimental designs. We collect forecasts of the results of three Registered Reports preliminarily accepted to the Journal of Development Economics, randomly varying four features: (1) small versus large reference values; (2) whether predictions are in raw units or standard deviations; (3) text-entry versus slider responses; and (4) small versus large slider bounds. Forecasts are generally robust to elicitation features, though wider slider bounds are associated with higher forecasts throughout the forecast distribution. We make preliminary recommendations on how many forecasts should be gathered.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- January 2020.
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