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The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity / Nicole Maestas, Kathleen J. Mullen, David Powell.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Maestas, Nicole.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w22452.
- NBER working paper series no. w22452
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2016.
- Summary:
- Population aging is expected to slow U.S. economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of population aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980-2010. We find that each 10% increase in the fraction of the population ages 60+ decreased per-capita GDP by 5.5%. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds was due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980-2010.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- July 2016.
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