Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration / Alejandro Graziano, Kyle Handley, Nuno Limão.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Graziano, Alejandro.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Handley, Kyle.

Limão, Nuno.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w25334.

NBER working paper series no. w25334

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2018.

Summary:

We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products and asymmetric for UK and EU exporters. We estimate that a persistent doubling of the probability of Brexit at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% lowers EU-UK bilateral export values by 15 log points on average, and more so for EU than UK exporters. Neither believed a trade war was likely.

Notes:

Print version record

December 2018.