Taking the Cochrane-Piazzesi Term Structure Model Out of Sample: More Data, Additional Currencies, and FX Implications / Robert J. Hodrick, Tuomas Tomunen.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Hodrick, Robert J.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Tomunen, Tuomas.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w25092.

NBER working paper series no. w25092

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Other Title:

Taking the Cochrane-Piazzesi Term Structure Model Out of Sample

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2018.

Summary:

We examine the Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005, 2008) model in several out-of-sample analyzes. The model's one-factor forecasting structure characterizes the term structures of additional currencies in samples ending in 2003. In post-2003 data one-factor structures again characterize each currency's term structure, but we reject equality of the coefficients across the two samples. We derive some implications of the model for the predictability of cross-currency investments, but we find little support for these predictions in either pre-2004 or post-2003 data. The model fails to beat historical average returns in recursive out-or-sample forecasting of excess rates of return for bonds and currencies.

Notes:

Print version record

September 2018.